An Artificial Market Model of a Foreign Exchange Market by Izumi K.

By Izumi K.

During this examine, we proposed a brand new method of foreign currency echange industry stories, a man-made industry procedure. the substitute industry method built-in fieldwork stories and multiagent versions so one can clarify the micro and macro relation in markets.

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A Varjt [∆St] This calculation result is got by Taylor extension. 6) In order to coincide his holding quantity with the optimal quantity, each agent orders the same quantity as the difference between the optimal quantity j qtj∗ and the previous holding quantity qt−1 : j . 7) If ∆qtj∗ > 0, then he orders to buy dollar ,that is, submits a bid. If ∆qtj∗ < 0, then he orders to sell dollar ,that is, submits an ask. And each agent orders the same rate as the predicted rate, that is, buyers(sellers) are willing to buy(sell) currencies when the rate is lower(higher) than the predicted rate: Order rate ≡ Ejt [∆St].

The optimal quantity of his dollar assets qtj∗ is as follows: qtj∗ = 1 1 Ejt [∆St] . a Varjt [∆St] This calculation result is got by Taylor extension. 6) In order to coincide his holding quantity with the optimal quantity, each agent orders the same quantity as the difference between the optimal quantity j qtj∗ and the previous holding quantity qt−1 : j . 7) If ∆qtj∗ > 0, then he orders to buy dollar ,that is, submits a bid. If ∆qtj∗ < 0, then he orders to sell dollar ,that is, submits an ask. And each agent orders the same rate as the predicted rate, that is, buyers(sellers) are willing to buy(sell) currencies when the rate is lower(higher) than the predicted rate: Order rate ≡ Ejt [∆St].

Intervention The forecast factors are ranked in order of importance. Because the boldfaced factors are common to both dealers, they are considered as market consensus of each period. 1: Results of interview with dealer X. 1994 I Jan-May Actual Forecast Factors ranking II Jun → 1. Rate level 1. Trade 1. Order 3. Chart III Jul-Dec → → 1. Order 2. Chart 1995 IV Jan-Feb V Mar-Apr 1. Politics 2. Mark 2. Announcement 1. Politics 1. Order 1. Intervention VI May-Jul → → 1. Chart 2. Order VII Aug-Dec 1.

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